CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-03-07T00:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-03-07T00:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19367/-1
CME Note: This CME is first seen as a faint partial halo to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2 (later in C3) and followed by a more bright and slightly more narrow shape to the W/NW in STEREO A COR2. The source of this CME is an eruption to the E/SE of AR12958 (N17W28) stretching across multiple longitudes from ~W20 to ~W45 based off of the dimming signature seen in SDO/AIA 193. The eruption is best seen in the SDO/AIA 193, 211, 94, 335, and STEREO A EUVI 195 wavelengths. From STEREO A's point of view, the eruption appears as opening field lines along the Eastern limb, while in SDO/AIA's point of view, the eruption is more clear with dimming, a post-eruptive arcade, and a brief EUV wave (seen best in SDO/AIA 211). UPDATE (2022-03-11T14:50Z): Arrival Field indicated by enhancement exceeding 10 nT, accompanied by field component rotation. Preceded by pileup, followed by slight speed increase. Temperature data inconclusive.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-03-10T18:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-10T00:17Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-03-07 08:05 - Time at C2: 2022-03-07 00:12 - Radial speed: 479.0 km/s - Half angle: 31 deg - Eruption location: N06W21 Inferences: - No flare association was found Predictions for Earth: - In-situ shock speed: 549.70 km/s - Shock arrival time: 2022-03-10 00:17 (i.e. predicted transit time: 72.10 hours) Kp=[3.0 - 4-0]Lead Time: 65.62 hour(s)
Difference: 18.33 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2022-03-08T01:00Z
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